Actually, it should lead to stronger year classes.
Nature is complicated, and looking at it through simple eyes often misleads. It may seem intuitive to assume that more eggs would equal a larger year class. But you'd be wrong, as usual. I've explained this to you before, so this time I'll let someone else say it for me:
"Since fish produce such a large number of eggs, an 8-pound female walleye would produce around 200,000, it takes only a handful of adults to maintain a population. In fact in walleye populations the maximum production of young walleyes usually occurs when there are low to intermediate densities of adults. At high adult densities walleye recruitment is usually reduced. This occurs because of competition between adult and young walleye or because of cannibalism (i.e. adult walleyes eating young walleyes). Therefore, you do not need to protect the maximum number of adults in order to have good recruitment."
Taken from here: http://www.ngpc.state.ne.us/cgi-bin/...;f=15;t=000032
And as everyone who actually reads my posts is aware, your last sentence completely misstates my position. I'll refresh your memory:
"Fast-forward to about 1984. The last strong walleye year-class hits desirable size. And that first stronger year class of smallies is now spawning. At this point, we're at the bottom of the cycle - prey species are already rebounding, and so is walleye recruitment. The following year, the fishing suddenly becomes tough, since natural prey is abundant and there aren't enough new fish to replace last year's harvest. And the damage is permanent. Over the next few years, angler harvest and spearing further reduce the adult walleye population, to the point that the best it can do is replace the fish that are harvested each year, give or take a few.
Clearly, I have not claimed that angler harvest and spearing had no effect on the adult walleye population - in fact, I explicitly said that it has. What I have been arguing is this: The increase in the smallmouth population had nothing to do with the adult walleye population, but with the juvenile walleye population. And the enormous increase in the smallmouth population that was already evident in 1989 (relative to 1975) is a strong indicator that it had already begun several years before spearing started, and would have occurred with or without spearing.
Finally we're getting somewhere!
So you do believe spearing and angler harvest led to walleye depletion giving the smallmouth bass an opportunity to grow in numbers. Thank goodness, I was starting to think you were just being stubborn.
What do you do, skip every other sentence?
Did anybody else think that was what I said? This time, I really am giving up.
Possibly useful...definitely interesting
Okay, so how about some information from the surveys that might actually improve your success rate? In the 1997 survey, they identified 6 key walleye sub-populations spawning in different areas, and did population estimates for each area. The largest sub-population, and this will surprise more than a few people, actually spawned in Baraboo - over 19,000 adult walleyes. The Turtle River was second, at about 15,000, followed by Beaver Flats, Horseshoe, Bonies Mound and the Manitowish River, in that order. By the way, I think jjeyes19 was off by quite a bit in his estimate of the size of Baraboo. Looking at it relative to the map scale, I'd guess the basin itself is pretty close to 300 acres. Now, I don't think you'll find 19,000 fish in Baraboo during most of the season, although I do consistently see a lot of suspended fish on my sonar during the summer months, and rarely see anyone trying very hard to catch them. However, they're definitely packed in there in the early spring and late fall, and if you check out my sideimaging album, you can see where some of the deep rock reefs are located.
They also looked at relative angling pressure for these areas, and I think their findings provide some useful insights if you're looking for the best odds for catching walleyes, at least during the post-spawn period and late fall (I'm sure they disperse all over the lake during the summer, going where the food is, but walleyes often make kind of a mock spawning run in late fall when water temps drop into the mid-40s). It turns out that while 27% of the total population spawned in the Turtle, that area received 36% of the total angling pressure during the season, probably due to the resorts. Baraboo was the opposite, having 36% of the spawning fish but only 27% of the fishing pressure. Beaver Flats and Horseshoe were also relatively underpressured, while the Manitowish was relatively overpressured and Bonies received fishing pressure roughly equal to its share of the population. Something to consider, and it will be interesting to see if this year's survey results include a similar analysis and if so, whether anything has changed.
Math is not only dangerous...
it's often incorrect. Take for instance all the numbers about populations, sub-populations, bio-mass, etc. All guesswork.
Here's a direct quote fron an article concerning the population of walleyes in Mille Lacs. The Minnesota DNR has devised a complex computer model called the VPA (Virtual Population Analysis) -
"But even the biologists who devised the VPA have little confidence in its ability to generate an accurate population estimate. The problem is, every piece of information fed into the VPA has a wide margin of error, most of which cannot be accurately measured. So the combined error is unknown, and so is the usefulness of the VPA. The DNR continues to "tune" its model in an attempt to improve its accuracy, but the underlying problem of insufficient or unreliable data cannot be solved anytime soon."
Since this was written in 2002, it pretty much calls all those cute figures we've been seeing in this string into question.
I also spoke with Jeff Roth a year or two ago and he agreed with me as to my theory on the timing of the smallmouth population explosion and the beginning of spearing. He also directed me to a DNR agent in Minesota to discuss issues with spearing on Mille Lacs.
Blue Ranger keeps talking about weak walleye recruitment in the early '80s that started the smallmouth population increase. My question is this, the TFF was around for over 5 decades before spearing started. In all those years, there had to be several even consecutive years of bad walleye recruitment. Heck, they were even stocking smallmouth bass, but no, nothing changed. Maybe some bad years of walleye fishing, but the walleye always remained the top predator in the TFF. I was speaking with Paul R. last week. From 1953to 1988, he remembers catching 1 smallmouth bass. It was so rare, he remembers exactly where he caught it. After 1988, they stopped going to the TFF for several years, and when they came just about 4 or 5 years ago, they were stunned. Smallies all over the place.
I know Blue Ranger says 1989 was when the enormous increase in the population of smallmouth bass was noticed, but you'd think Paul might have nailed at least 1 in 1988. I mean the population increase was enormous. Blue Ranger says so.
If there was some smallie spawning going on before spearing, it was nothing compared to what happed after spearing started.
I would love to hear from Don Pemble as to when he started catching smallies, but I totally understand if he feels best to not pick sides.
jjeyes19: It just ain't so.
This topic has been extensively researched through data analysis of over 200 northern Wisconsin lakes surveyed over a 13 year period. The only gamefish found to strongly interact with walleye populations were largemouth bass, which prey heavily on juvenile walleyes. Musky populations were actually strongly positively correlated with walleye populations - in other words, lakes with high musky populations also had high walleye populations and vice versa, suggesting that both do well in similar environments and there's no significant interaction between them. There was no statistical evidence that either smallmouth bass or northern pike abundance had any relationship to walleye abundance. Look it up:
Fayram, A.H., M.J. Hanson, and T.J. Ehlinger. 2005. Interactions between Walleyes and Four Fish Species with Implications for Walleye Stocking. Journal of the American Fisheries Society 25:1321-1330.
I Got Some Facts For You!!
Earlier in this thread you defended your heavy bias towards smallmouth by stating "As for me, I'm certainly not a smallmouth fisherman". I just took a look at some of your pictures and here's what I found.... Not a single picture of a walleye. Two pictures of smallmouth bass with the following captions, "The pound for pound champion" and "The only thing better than a lake full of these is having lots of time to go out and catch em".
Fact: Everything Blue Ranger has written has been from the perspective of an individual who prefers smallmouth bass over walleye.
Fact: The lake now has less walleye than it had before spearing started.
Fact: The lake now has more smallmouth bass than it had before spearing.
Fact: Smallmouth bass and walleye compete against each other for food and space.
If you look at the 2007 TFF Fishery Management Plan 51 of the 54 attendees had a high interest in walleye. Only 15 of the 54 attendees had a high interest in smallmouth bass. Oddly enough the same number of participants (15) had little or no interest in smallmouth. Those of us who enjoy the TFF walleye want to protect them and we were having a little discussion about doing just that. If you don't have a genuine interest in the topic you really don't have to chime in and start correcting people!
Blue, I just spent a little time reviewing some of the old threads and reading your posts. You really spend a lot of time telling people how they're wrong and how you're right. You give people credit for good posts (posts you agree with) and lambaste the bad ones (posts you disagree with). You even criticized the song choice on the vacation video eagleeye posted! I personally am a little tired of your "know it all", arrogant approach. My advice to you... lighten up and little bit and you just might find someone to fill that empty seat in your boat. Oh, you may also want to revisit your choice of hats.
Can't leave you guys alone...
Sure, I abandon my computer for a few days and George hatches a plot to send me to sensitivity training!
Paul, I'm really happy to see someone else offering an upbeat assessment of the current walleye fishery. At a time when people are planning their summer vacations, and knowing that it's likely to be a tough year, I'm sure the businesses that depend on the TFF don't appreciate people posting comments about how the walleye fishing has gone to you know where in a handbasket. I also agree with your assessment of the prospects for creating a trophy walleye fishery here.
I'm well aware that most people who were around at the time spearing began believe it's responsible for both the walleye decline and the smallmouth explosion. But you also point out the widespread animosity that existed toward the tribal spearers at the time, and in that environment, do you really think there was any willingness on the part of most anglers to even consider an alternative explanation?
Of course, you're right that the truth will never be known. Regardless of what Randy might want to label as "FACTS", we don't actually know what the walleye or smallmouth populations were in 1984, immediately before spearing began. But to accept the idea that spearing caused the smallmouth population increase, it's necessary to believe that the removal of primarily larger walleyes significantly reduced predation on juvenile smallmouth, and I don't think that idea holds water, because young of the year smallmouth aren't anywhere near their optimum prey size. The timing also has to be considered - smallmouth fry are most vulnerable as they begin to venture away from their nests, and this occurs at about the same time that the mayflies are hatching. Back in the days when the smallmouth were a fraction of their present numbers, it would have made little sense for large walleyes to waste their time hunting down relatively small, scattered pods of a few hundred tiny smallmouth fry when huge clouds of larger, slower-moving mayflies were hatching elsewhere in the lake. And on top of that, you have to believe that the effect was so huge and immediate that the very first year of spearing resulted in a year class of smallmouth that produced over 5,000 harvested fish 4 years later. Finally, there is no evidence to suggest that the combined harvest from spearing and hook and line fishing has ever been as high as the 1975 harvest by anglers alone - in fact, all the available evidence suggests that the reverse is true. And if, in fact, the population was still near 100,000 adults in 1985 and supported by good juvenile year classes, all the research indicates that it should have been capable of supporting harvest well above documented levels without significant long-term effects. I think the apparent impact of spearing had more to do with removing a sizeable number of larger fish from the population before the season opened and hook and line anglers had a crack at them. The obvious effect would be to increase prey availability for the survivors, and this has repeatedly been demonstrated to have a significant effect on catch rates. This might lead anglers to perceive a much greater immediate impact on the population than was actually the case.
Since nobody else has mentioned it, there's some important developing news that may give Randy his wish ("...what harm is there in modifying our limits? Why is nothing [being] done"?). It seems the Lac du Flambeau will be holding a referendum to decide whether to abandon their 1997 agreement with the state that allowed the DNR to maintain a 3-fish walleye bag limit. Here's a link to the article that appeared in the Lakeland Times:
http://www.lakelandtimes.com:80/main...ectionID=9&S=1
I checked the dates, and noticed that this article appeared only 1 week after Randy's comments. Since Randy would be the first to admit that it's impossible for two seemingly related things to happen at roughly the same time unless one caused the other, perhaps he owes us an apology. :rolleyes:
I've been searching for additional details, but haven't seen any.
As for some of those other "FACTS":
"FACT" 1: The title of the photo album in question is "Who is Blue." Obviously the intention was to share some good pictures of myself. It turns out that when you're taking self-timer pictures in a boat, you get the best results under bright sunlight on a calm day. On the other hand, when you're trying to catch walleyes, those conditions tend to produce the worst results. Would I rather catch a smallmouth than a walleye? In absolute terms, yes, but not when I'm in the mood for a fish meal. And I'm amazed he didn't point out that I have a bass boat! Oh my! I think everybody who knows me is well aware that the largest proportion of my time is spent fishing for muskies, but I can guarantee that I spend more time fishing for walleyes on the TFF every year than Randy does. And I could easily claim that his opinion is the one that's biased, because unlike me, it seems obvious that he's only interested what's good for the walleye population, regardless of how it impacts other species.
"FACTS" 2 and 3: As I noted above, we don't know what the walleye and smallmouth populations were in 1984, and we don't know what they are today. It takes more to make something a fact than labeling it as one - even if you use all capital letters.
"FACT" 4: Freak is on target. In a comparison of over 200 lakes in northern Wisconsin, researchers found absolutely no statistical evidence that lakes with abundant smallmouth populations had less abundant walleye populations, and extremely detailed dietary analysis studies have found insignificant prey overlap between the two species. And that interpretation of Jeff's comments was way off base. It's a public document, so of course it's going to be phrased in a diplomatic way, but I was at the meeting, and here's a proper translation: "Some of those fears were allayed after discussion about known interactions between these species" actually means, "We spoke at length about the abundant research demonstrating that this is not an issue. Most of the attendees accepted this, but a few were unwilling to believe a word we said." And "a majority view that smallmouth bass probably have not adversely affected the walleye fishery in the Turtle-Flambeau Flowage" means, "because we knew this wasn't a concern, we ignored it when we formulated the plan". The DNR understands the significance of the TFF walleye fishery, and if the smallmouth posed a risk to the walleye population, it would have been taken into consideration.
As for eagleeye's video, as I indicated in my comments on that thread, I like Godsmack, but I think anyone would be hard-pressed to explain the thematic connection between a video that clearly depicts a group fishing outing and a song entitled "I Stand Alone". Judging from eagleeye's response, I don't think he took any great offense. And it seems a bit hypocritical for Randy to criticize one of the two people who not only watched the video start to finish, but then took the time to express their appreciation for the effort eagleeye made to share it - especially considering that he wasn't one of them.
I made a comment that natural systems are very complex, and that simple explanations are often incomplete or incorrect. I ran across some interesting research that illustrates that point. It seems that many lakes in our region experienced very poor walleye year classes in 1992 and 1993, and credible research has linked this to - of all things - the June, 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Phillippines. A Minnesota researcher found that as much as 57% of the annual variation in walleye recruitment can be explained by June temperatures. The volcano's ash cloud lowered global temperatures by as much as 1 degree Fahrenheit at the peak of its effect, and May-July temperatures in Minnesota in 1992-93 were actually 3 degrees below the long-term average. Interestingly, the study mentions that the previous regional trough in walleye recruitment occurred in 1979, which is pretty close to the "about 1980" estimate I used in my hypothesis. If you combine poor climate conditions with cannibalization or a prey shortage, you get an even better opportunity for exactly the kind of exceptionally weak year classes I suggested.
The hat, may it rest in peace, came from the good folks at Columbia - it did a great job of keeping the sun off my upper parts, at a very reasonable price. Unfortunately, it was straw and got crushed to death in my rear storage compartment.