Stop Guessing, Go Fish, Fish Hard

[Paul Schlagel]

This post comes from something that’s been on my mind a lot lately.

Time and again, when I do a seminar, attend a MI meeting, or fish with guests, common questions I hear are: “When’s the best time to fish?”, “When’s Prime Time?”, “What’s your choice for ideal weather?” These are good questions. I’ve spoken and written frequently about moonrise/moonset and majors/minors (see www.solunarforecast.com for good information about majors), and keeping these times in mind is always an important part of my game plan. It’s important to be returning to a previous follow or hitting your confidence spots during any of these times. Likewise, when weather conditions suggest a good bite, it’s important to fish hard and hit the best spots.

However, using forecasted prime times or a cold front as an excuse to take it easy or skip fishing altogether is a mistake – a big mistake. This season has again reinforced what I’ve been saying for years, which is to stop guessing and fish hard as much as you possibly can. Forecasted prime times are not a substitute for time on the water. This season there have been a large number of fish caught during times of the day that I thought would be slow, and lots of prime times that were dead. Similarly, there have been numerous awesome trips on post-frontal days that most people thought would be slow. I don’t have a crystal ball. I wish I knew exactly when the action would occur, I’m sure we all do. But it isn’t that easy. Nothing in musky fishing is easy. To do the very best during your trip or to maximize your success though out the season on your home waters, it’s important to fish hard as much as possible, even when they’re not supposed to be biting.

I started thinking more about this topic after a couple recent trips. Here are just a couple of many stories from recent trips that illustrate my point:

I had a recent successful trip that went as predicted. We fished a long, hard day and had a couple follows, but it was fairly slow. At 9 pm one of my guests caught a 42”er, his first musky ever. His first musky was followed by a 52”er at 10 pm. So he caught a couple milestone fish an hour apart, and the whole day went according to planned and the fish hit when they ‘should’. The very next day, however, was a different story. With exactly the same weather conditions and with very good fishermen in the boat, we again fished a long, hard day but finished at around midnight without ever using a net. [We got skunked] During the day we saw follow after follow after follow, many of them really hot, but didn’t draw a strike. The evening and night periods of the trip were completely dead – not even a sniff. In hindsight, maybe we could have made an adjustment to make fish bite or performed better figure-8s – who knows. Even though we didn’t put fish in the boat, at least we were out there during the best action of the day. Even though it was hot and sunny, we were out fishing and having a lot of action. If we’d only gone out in the evening and night for the “Prime Time”, we wouldn’t have even seen a fish.

A few days ago I had a trip that started at noon and went past midnight. One of my guests had a big fish on at 2 pm that didn’t correspond to any majors – not exactly prime time. The fish was big and would have been a new PR, maybe even his first fifty, but it shook off about twenty feet from the boat. The wind eased a bit late in the afternoon and I was able to reach my top spots for evening and night, but as you’ve already guessed, evening and night were dead. That fish at 2 pm was our only shot of the day. It didn’t go in the net, but we were twenty feet from a milestone fish – at a time of day when we nearly had the lake to ourselves.

I have dozens of good post-front stories, but two really stand out from this season. First, I’ll explain that I have a number of previous guests who are on “stand-by” – if I have an open day or cancellation I’ll run through the list and see if anyone can fish. These folks often get the call when the forecasted weather looks nasty. I had a guest from out of town cut short his four-day trip because a strong cold front moved in and destroyed his confidence. The stand-by folks who joined me and fished the day he skipped were rewarded with two good muskies, one was a 51 incher. Clearly, leaving a day early was a big mistake. Similarly, about a month ago I had a couple guys stay home and fish local waters instead of coming to Mille Lacs because of a forecasted cold front and wind. I didn’t feel sorry for those guys at all when we boated two and lost one on the day they cancelled; those that hit the net were 46” and 51”. The “fair-weather fishermen” blew it, and those were some of the sweetest fish of the season.

Everyone has a busy life with work, family, and other obligations. It is rare the person who gets to fish as much as they’d like. When you get a chance to go, don’t waste any precious fishing time by hanging back or taking it easy because you don’t think they’ll bite. Don’t guess and don’t try to forecast the bite – fish hard as much as you can.

[beavergrad]

I get out about 3 times/week and have focused on lunar and weather patterns a lot this year trying to become a better fisherman. When I look back at this year's log I've done for the first time and past memories, I would say 70% of my catches have no ryhme or reason to them. This past week with the full moon, I've fished pretty hard. Haven't seen a fish and I thought I would be in the money this week. There are other factors besides the full moon that I think made fishing bad this past week for me but it made me think twice about relying so heavily on these type of factors. It's good to hear someone that put's as much time on the water as you, admitt that getting out and just fishing hard is the best way to fish for muskies. I think that attitude promotes having a better attitude in the boat if conditions are suppose to be "optimal" and not catching anything or putting your time in during lackluster fishing conditions and getting a bonus fish. Thanks for the advice.

Question: The past 2 weeks of fishing have been bad for me. My general conclusion is that the water temperatures are falling from there peak high a couple of weeks ago and fish aren't feeding as much. With that, falling water temps and hours of sunlight effect the weeds spots. I feel fish are in that in between stage from transitioning to there fall structure. Is it too early to come to that conclusion? And am I right?

Dumb Question: What do you consider a "front?"

I enjoy reading your post and thank you.
Mike

[Paul Schlagel]

It's pretty universal that we talk more of our successes than failures. Usually when you hear chatter about Vermilion or Mille Lacs, it's reports of the fifties being caught, and you see the photos of happy anglers grinning for the camera with a huge fish in hand. What you don't hear about is the 95% of the boats who got nothing. We don't hear as much about the huge amount of fishing pressure it took to produce all those fish or of everyone who went empty-handed. Unforturnately, this creates unrealistic expectations, the belief that you just wait until dark to dip a double-10 or Dawg into the water and there will be a fifty waiting to snap it up.

Beav, you're probably doing just fine. I recently spoke with a guide on Miltona who reported slow fishing. Vermilion has been really tough the past few weeks. Mille Lacs has been tough the past few weeks. It's likely a state-wide condition right now. If you had tough fishing I'd say that was pretty normal. If it were always easy then the fish caught would be less rewarding and everyone would be doing it.

"Front" is a weather change. Post cold front condions can sometimes be tough, though I don't fear cold fronts as much as most. After the passing of a cold front the air is cool and dry, and the sky is clear and blue, sometimes with puffy cumulus clouds. Just like today, 9/1.

[geno668]

Paul,

How can I go about getting my name on that cancellation/replacement list? I am sure it's pretty extensive but if there is ever a chance. Thanks.

Geno